Time for one more predictions post before the end of the season, and it’s for all the marbles! Who will win the 2019 Overwatch League Grand Finals?

The answer? Probably San Francisco, and if not them, then almost certainly Vancouver. Here are the results of 1,000 simulations, using regular-season SAMP:

To be honest, I’m a little surprised that the Championship column is so dominated by those two teams. In 1,000 sims, the Shock or Titans won it all 961 times, leaving just 39 titles for the other six teams combined, with over half of those going to New York. Overall, 745 of my 1,000 sims featured both San Francisco and Vancouver in the finals.

London, which is the only team in the playoffs with a SAMP below .500, was also the only team not to come up with a league championship in all 1,000 of my sims. The Spitfire have a nearly 50% chance of going 0-2 and finishing up in 7th or 8th place.

Speaking of which, the double-elimination format means that a team can lose a match during the playoffs but still win it all. How often did that happen, you might ask? 460 times, it turns out, which is higher than I would have expected. I think it’s because San Fran/Vancouver is a pretty close match (about 54% for the Shock), so if they face each other in Match 12, the winner goes to the Finals while the loser has to play in Match 13. The winner of that match goes to the Finals, as well, so I’d imagine there were a fair number of Shock/Titans rematches in my sims, with the initial loser getting revenge.

Finally, here’s one last batch of numbers I just thought up: because we know the payouts and the odds for each team making each standing, here’s the average amount of bonus money the teams will take home:

San Francisco: $852,150
Vancouver: $772,250
New York: $390,100
Los Angeles: $335,950
Hangzhou: $313,350
Seoul: $291,450
Atlanta: $279,300
London: $265,450

No matter how it turns out, they’ll be able to afford one heck of an after-season party!