The 2021 Overwatch League season has almost come to a close, with just eight teams left to vie for the championship! That means it’s time for another SAMP-based simulation of 1,000 playoff runs — or 2,000, as I’m doing something a little different this year.

Here are the results of my simulation, showing the number of times out of 1,000 each team made it to the Grand Finals and how often they won it all:

Wait, what’s with all the columns? The first Finals and Champ columns tell you how many times each team accomplished those using the real brackets and matchups, while the second “alt” pair is how things would have gone with a standard 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5 playoff matchup — in other words, one where teams don’t get to pick their opponents.

Focusing first on the “real” playoffs, it’s no surprise that Shanghai comes out on top most of the time, but it might come as a little bit of a shock (not the Shock) to see Los Angeles edge Dallas for the #2 spot. The Gladiators do have a slightly higher SAMP than the Fuel, but the Fuel have what looks like an easier half of the bracket. I wonder if my system has LA as more likely to make a run through the loser’s bracket a la the 2019 Shock.

The Dragons, Gladiators, and Fuel account for 664, or nearly 2/3, of the championships, leaving the remaining five teams to fight over the last 1/3. I’m not sure we have enough hopium to go around.

What about the “alternate” playoffs? SAMP doesn’t rate San Francisco as world-beaters this time around, but nobody thinks that Washington wouldn’t have made for a much easier foe for Shanghai. That’s probably a major reason for the Dragons “gaining” 34 wins, and their more likely presence in the second round probably explains the Gladiators’ reduced chances of victory.

Regardless of how the brackets are aligned, that Philadelphia/Washington dream matchup isn’t likely to occur. In both cases, they make the finals a combined 160 times out of 2,000 total teams that advance that far. Using the real bracket and a crude-and-probably-not-quite-accurate measurement places their odds of squaring off on the 25th at around 1 in 356. A quick Google search for “1 in 356” tells me that’s the odds that you’ll die via assault with a firearm, which seems appropriate for a shooter game.