Will your team go 12-0 (or 0-12) the rest of the way?
With the Overwatch League running just a 16-game regular season schedule this year — shorter even than the NFL’s — there’s a real chance we could see teams make some amazing runs. The record for consecutive regular season wins is 19, followed by 14, 14, 12, and 12, so it’s not hard to imagine at least one team going undefeated the rest of the way. In the case of teams like Houston, Washington, and Philadelphia, it’s not inconceivable to think that one might even go 16-0.
That also means that there’s a non-zero chance that some unlucky team could go 0-12 over the rest of its schedule. Four teams have managed streaks of at least that long in the regular season, and one is currently on an active 12-game losing streak.
What are the odds of either of those happening? We’re deep enough into the season that SRS and SAMP scores might be relevant enough for us to calculate teams’ expected winning percentages in each game for the rest of the season … but then again, maybe we aren’t. The Valiant are bad, sure, but are they win-1-out-of-13-maps bad? Even the 2018 Dragons (13.4%) and replacement 2020 Titans (32.6%) won maps at a higher rate than the Valiant’s 7.7%. So that will probably even out as the series progresses.
Still, using the numbers we have now, it looks pretty grim for them. Take a look:
| Team | Wins | Exp. W | Exp. Total W | 12-0 % | 0-12 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DALLAS | 2 | 10.63 | 12.63 | 21.43% | 0.00% |
| PHILADELPHIA | 4 | 9.92 | 13.92 | 7.51% | 0.00% |
| WASHINGTON | 4 | 9.08 | 13.08 | 2.45% | 0.00% |
| SHANGHAI | 3 | 9.13 | 12.13 | 2.29% | 0.00% |
| CHENGDU | 3 | 9.07 | 12.07 | 1.70% | 0.00% |
| SAN FRANCISCO | 3 | 8.87 | 11.87 | 0.88% | 0.00% |
| HOUSTON | 4 | 8.47 | 12.47 | 0.72% | 0.00% |
| LA GLADIATORS | 2 | 7.37 | 9.37 | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| SEOUL | 3 | 7.17 | 10.17 | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| FLORIDA | 3 | 6.96 | 9.96 | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| HANGZHOU | 1 | 5.91 | 6.91 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| ATLANTA | 1 | 5.23 | 6.23 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| TORONTO | 3 | 4.60 | 7.60 | 0.00% | 0.03% |
| PARIS | 1 | 4.42 | 5.42 | 0.00% | 0.07% |
| NEW YORK | 1 | 5.06 | 6.06 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| BOSTON | 1 | 3.25 | 4.25 | 0.00% | 1.08% |
| VANCOUVER | 0 | 2.18 | 2.18 | 0.00% | 5.53% |
| GUANGZHOU | 1 | 1.40 | 2.40 | 0.00% | 10.07% |
| LONDON | 0 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.00% | 35.14% |
| LA VALIANT | 0 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.00% | 68.85% |
Let’s focus on the positives first. Thanks to its astonishing May Melee run, Dallas has a 21.43% chance to win its remaining 12 games, though its 2-2 start means that it’s only likely to finish third in total wins. Philadelphia is the team with the best shot at a perfect 16-0, and even Outlaws fans can pin their hopes on the 1-in-139 chance their team pulls off that feat.
On the flip side … well, I told you it looked grim for the Valiant. And if London does go 0-12, that will run its losing streak up to 27 games, which amazingly might put Shanghai’s record in reach. The most important game of the season? August 7, when Los Angeles faces Guangzhou, which could be a matchup of an 0-14 team versus an 0-12 team.
Of course, none of the percentages are actually zero, If you want to be more precise, Dallas has a 1-in-17,589,981,147,793,600 chance of going 0-12 the rest of the season, while the Valiant’s odds of going 12-0 the rest of the way are 1-in-175,172,709,472,149,000,000,000,000. My poor spreadsheet can’t even compute numbers to that many places, hence all the zeroes at the end.
But hey, anything’s possible, right?