I did fairly well with my predictions for May Melee seeding, so now it’s time to predict the tournaments! Or, more accurately, the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals of the tournaments. I couldn’t do predictions for the early “knockout” rounds, because of the “choose your opponent” system it was using. But now that all the remaining games are known — and, blessedly, there’s no reseeding, which makes setting things up much easier — it’s time for some more semi-accurate guesses!

First, the Asian region:

[table “115” not found /]

Yes, Shanghai still looks unreasonably good. That’s bad news for their first-round opponent, London, which my system gives a 0.148% chance of pulling off the upset. That’s 1 in 675, so it’s possible that it could have come up in 1,000 sims, but it didn’t. Not once.

If Shanghai somehow doesn’t win, New York has the next-best chance, which is unsurprisingly bad news for their first round opponent, Chengdu, the only other team (besides London) to have never won it all in my sims. Maybe Ameng will just play Wrecking Ball and wreck all of my predictions.

On to North America:

[table “116” not found /]

It’s a little more spread out here, even though Philadelphia wins about half the time. San Francisco takes about a quarter of the wins, leaving the other six teams to fight over the remaining quarter. Nobody’s completely left out in the cold, though if you’re a Dallas fan, you might not want to get your hopes too high.

Probably an even bigger upset than Dallas winning it all would be Florida beating Atlanta. Heck, it would be huge for Florida to take a map off Atlanta — something the franchise hasn’t done in 11 tries. We’ll see how it all plays out!